The latest New England Times Engage Poll has revealed Barnaby Joyce has converted a large number of New England voters to One Nation, but most only if they are voting for him personally.
Barnaby Joyce has had more positions on his political future than the Kama Sutra, shifting rapidly from resigning at the next election, to running for the Senate, to potentially recontesting New England again. Some have interpreted his recent ambitions regarding Western Sydney as an indication he may relocate out of the New England entirely.
The New England Times Engage Big Shifting Issues Poll, which required all participants to be identified to both enable the poll to be an annual panel and reduce the amount of noise created by One Nation and Rail Trail supporters from all over the country attempting to manipulate recent polls, revealed that the One Nation vote had increased from 11.2% in December last year, to 32.1%. support in New England.
However, the undecided vote remains high at 19.5%, with many commenting they will wait to see who the candidate is.
Rural voters, particularly highly engaged regional voters such as we have here in New England, traditionally prioritise candidate quality far above party allegiance when deciding who to vote for. This behaviour was seen in Farrer, where many operatives on the ground commented that there is no brand loyalty in the area, and One Nation’s David Farley, a respected and relatively well known agribusiness leader, was simply the best candidate to represent the region on the ballot.
So too do New England voters vote by candidate, and many of those indicating their intention to vote for One Nation commented to the effect that they believed they would be voting for Barnaby Joyce. And if Barnaby Joyce was not the candidate, they would likely go back to the Nationals.
“I intend to vote for Barnaby Joyce if he stands for One Nation in New England. If Barnaby stands for the Senate I will probably vote for who ever stands for the Coalition in New England.”
75-79 year old male voter, Upper Hunter“I will vote for Barnaby Joyce if he stands for election”
60-69 year old woman, Armidale
The lack of a Nationals candidate is also leaving locals unmoored in their political support, indicating that the traditional local party needs to stop licking its wounds and get on with the job of nominating someone to replace Joyce in 2027.
“I normally vote National but I don’t know who the candidate will be.”
70-74 year old male, Inverell area“If Barnaby Joyce is the candidate, otherwise probably National.”
40-45 year old woman, Glen Innes area
Just as many would not vote for Joyce, even if he ran again, with some considering his defection a betreyal that could not be forgiven.
“I have always previously voted for Barnaby Joyce. I will now never vote for him ever again.”
45-49 year old man, Guyra area“I’m disappointed Barnaby joined One Nation, who I believe are divisive and too aligned with Gina. If Nationals put up a good candidate I will probably vote for them.”
55-59 year old woman, Moonbi area
The murkiness and confusion in this latest poll is confirmed anecdotally by the mixed reactions as One Nation tries to establish its base. A recent social media post in a Guyra Facebook group promoting the formation of a new branch there had to be locked to comments after many people commented that they did not want One Nation in their town, and considered it an “embarrassment”.
Full results of the Big Shifting Issues Poll will be published next week on New England Times Engage.
Like what you’re reading? Support New England Times by making a small contribution today and help us keep delivering local news paywall-free. Donate now