Political operatives around the region are not surprised, and are not changing any of their campaign plans, in response to the news that the Member for New England Barnaby Joyce is now an Independent.
NSW National Party President Rick Colless said the party was disappointed, but otherwise were continuing with business as normal.
“I’m really disappointed that Barnaby’s come to this decision,” he said.
“He was good for the Nats when he was on fire, but he’s sort of lost a bit of his mojo over his disagreements with David Littleproud in particular.”
“In the Nats, we like to have people there that are good team players, and when people start putting themselves before the team, that’s when it upsets everybody.”
“I’ve supported him all along and everything he’s been doing through the tough times that he’s had, I’ve supported him. So, I’m just disappointed he made the decision the way he has.”
Colless was realistic about the fact that they may lose a few votes and potentially members with Joyce’s defection.
“There’ll always be a few members that will follow Barnaby, because he has a very strong, personal following.
Colless compared the situation to that of Andrew Gee, who quit the Nationals over their opposition to the Indigenous Voice to Parliament in 2022. Gee retained his seat of Calare as an independent earlier this year in a brutal 4-way election that saw Gee, Nationals candidate Sam Farraway, Labor candidate Julie Collingwood, and Climate 200 backed ‘teal’ Independent Kate Hook all get between 10% and 30% of the vote.
“There were a lot of people who were very angry with Andrew Gee for going independent,” he said.
“It’s a bit early to tell what the balance will be in that regard, but I would expect that there will be a few that will go with Barnaby, but there’ll be a lot more that will stay with the Nats.”
“I’ve already heard from from a number of different sources since he announced it that there’s a lot of people that are not happy with him leaving the Nats.”
Pre-selections won’t be rushed for by-election speculation
While Joyce is busy attending to local constituent matters, attending a celebration for Walcha Coffee yesterday, national headlines remain heavy with never-ending speculation about whether he will join One Nation and the possibility of a move back to the Senate. Local party figures from across the political spectrum say they are watching the situation but not adjusting their schedules, bringing pre-selections forward, or launching early campaigns for a potential by-election.
Colless was clear that the locally dominant party has no plans to pre-select their next candidate for New England early.
“We would not normally be pre selecting more than two years out,” he said.
“Normally we would be looking at pre-selecting probably 12 months ahead of the election.”
Colless said they were unlikely to consider potential candidates for the next federal election, not due until 2028, until after the NSW state election, scheduled for March 2027.
“It’ll be business as usual. Obviously it’s going to change the work that we do in New England. Barnaby is sitting on the independent benches, that’s all he’s committed to.”
“He hasn’t joined One Nation yet.”
A by-election will only be triggered by Barnaby Joyce’s resignation as the Member for New England. He is free to change parties as he sees fit, or remain an independent, as under electoral law it is the individual, not the party, who is elected to the seat.
Joyce has committed to serving out his term, but there is some speculation that One Nation operative Sean Bell, only recently appointed the NSW Senator for One Nation, may step aside to allow Joyce to enjoy five and a half years without having to face an election as part of the machinations to secure his switch to the minor right wing party. If that happens, Joyce would have to resign as the member for New England, which would automatically trigger a by-election.
Whether there is a by-election or not, Colless confirmed the coffers of the New England Nationals are healthy and ready for the campaign, as the funds Joyce raised remain with the Nationals.
“It’s in the National Party’s campaign account. He’s already said that he’s happy for that money to stay with the Nationals.
“He’s doing that out of respect for his constituents that contribute that money to the National Party so I guess that’s a positive for him to think like that.”
New England Labor sources echoed the lack of surprise, and said they too had no changes planned to their campaign activities, but were simply remaining focused on advocating for the New England within the Labor Party.
“It’s not surprising, his heart hasn’t been in it for a while.”
Some said they felt for the loyal National Party rank and file members who had worked hard to re-elect Joyce earlier this year.
“We’re on opposite sides of the political spectrum, but we know these people – we stand next to them on the booth all day – they’re our neighbours and friends and at the end of the day we all know that kind of betrayal smarts a bit.”
The New England Greens are similarly staying focused on the issues.
“We expect that our Federal Representative will serve out his term on the crossbench,” said Elizabeth O’Hara of the New England Greens.
“New England Greens will maintain our focus on the issues that matter to New Englanders: the cost of living (particularly housing affordability), climate action (no new coal or gas, an end to logging of native forests), social justice, reclaiming our sovereignty in foreign affairs and transitioning to a fairer, renewable economy rather than be distracted by the possibility of a by-election.”
Prophetically, O’Hara had commented at the Armidale Candidates forum during this year’s election that she “had a feeling” we would have a by-election due to concerns about Joyce’s health – concerns which turned out to be well founded when it was revealed the day after the election that he was being treated for prostate cancer.
A ‘circus of candidates’ expected
The next contest for New England is likely to be a hotly contested one, with a number of strong candidates, and the atmosphere likely to be as intense as the 2016 election where former Independent member for New England Tony Windsor tried to take the seat back from Joyce.
With former state MP Adam Marshall and Joyce staffer and Tamworth Branch Chair Heidi Hallam on many lips as a potential candidate for the Nationals, pointing to a highly contested pre-selection, the Nationals state party leader played a dead bat on any discussion of who their candidate may be.
“I know there’s quite a few people that are keen to have a crack at it, but it’s up to them to announce their own candidacy,” Colless said.
Multiple names of potential independents and minor party candidates are already circulating. Supporters were talking up a potential candidacy of Armidale Mayor Sam Coupland at an event in Armidale just hours after Joyce announced he was quitting the party, at the same time a meeting was being held in Muswellbrook about the potential of supporting a pro-mining candidate. It is understood Climate 200 have also been talking about supporting a pre-climate action independent should one come forward.
Independent Uralla Shire Councillor Adam Blakester, who ran against Joyce as an Independent in 2019, believes either a by-election or general election without an incumbent would draw a crowded field.
“If there was a by-election, I expect it would be a similar circus of candidates as was the case when Joyce had to resign due to his dual citizenship. It may be that the 2028 election will be too,” he said.
“I’m sure I am now one of many prospective candidates who are watching this all very closely.”
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