More than a third of New England voters say they are undecided about who they would support at the next federal election, with the latest New England Times Engage Poll revealing an electorate unsettled by Barnaby Joyce’s move to One Nation.
34.7% of voters in the poll conducted just before Christmas said they were undecided, the Nationals support plummeting to reveal the party loyal baseline of just 17.5%. However, any hopes of Pauline Hanson that her star recruit would increase the chances of a lower house seat win are set to be dashed, with the party registering just 11.1%, only a fraction above the actual vote the party achieved at the last election of 9.9%.
The poll points to a seat far less predictable than in past elections, with long standing loyalties fractured and many voters describing a sense of political dislocation following Barnaby Joyce’s defection from the Nationals.
Many respondents said they felt politically lost, with trust in parties eroded and no clear alternative yet emerging.
“I have traditionally voted Nationals but feel deserted with an elected national MP now batting for One Nation – really!” (60–64, female, Glen Innes)
“Not confident in any of them.” (55–59, female, Armidale)
“No one deserves my vote at this moment.” (65–69, female, Glen Innes)
A strong and consistent theme was that voters are deliberately withholding judgement until candidates are declared, describing themselves as undecided rather than disengaged.
“Bit early to know who to vote for when parties and candidates are unknown.” (70–74, male, Armidale)
“Depends on who stands in the next election.” (75–79, female, Inverell)
For many respondents, Barnaby Joyce’s defection to One Nation was described as a betrayal that ruled him out entirely (should he change his mind and run again), but did not automatically shift their vote to another major party.
“Will not be voting for Barnaby Joyce.” (65–69, female, Glen Innes)
“Not Barnaby Joyce, but perhaps Labor or Independent depending on who is standing.” (70–74, female, Armidale)
There was strong appetite among undecided voters for a credible independent candidate who could genuinely represent the region rather than party interests.
“Since we lost our Independent rep Tony Windsor, the Nats rep has shown no evidence of having done anything for the region. Time for a new, strong Independent to represent us.” (75–79, female, Armidale)
“Want a capable and credible independent.” (50–54, male, Armidale)
Across party lines, voters repeatedly expressed frustration at New England being taken for granted as a safe seat, particularly by the major parties. Policy priorities still mattered for undecided voters, with many saying their final decision would come down to what was on offer that works for our region rather than party labels.
“Government needs to start looking after the regional people, not just the city people.” (50–54, female, Armidale)
“I usually wait to hear what their agendas are for our country then vote for who seems to have the best.” (70–74, female, Glen Innes)
That sense of rejection, however, was not universal. A smaller but vocal group said Joyce’s move validated their own frustrations with the major parties. A 50–54 year old woman from Uralla said that with Joyce leaving the Nationals, “we feel the Nationals have left us so we will follow Barnaby as he gives us a voice”.
Finally, a layer of deep cynicism and low trust in the political system was evident among a subset of respondents.
“Not confident in any of them.” (55–59, female, Tamworth)
“They all do a shit job no matter who is in power.” (45–49, male, Armidale)
Full results of the regional economy and policy issues in the poll will be published throughout the week.
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