One of the more far-fetched conspiracy theories circulating in political circles to explain the defection of Barnaby Joyce to One Nation was that it was part of an elaborate plan to both neutralise the party as a political threat – and ultimately elevate Joyce to the prime ministership.
The theory, originally considered to far fetched to mention in public, lays out a multi-step strategy beginning with destabilising the Nationals and forcing it into open conflict with the Liberals by pushing policy positions the senior Coalition partner cannot fully agree to, such as the anti-Net Zero position. From there, Joyce is cast as the leadership figure who could help repair the coalition, before quitting the party himself to further undermine its leadership and fuel speculation.
In its more elaborate form, the theory suggests inflated polling for One Nation would be used to manufacture momentum, friends would defect to the party to reinforce the narrative, and internal leadership tensions within the Nationals would be kept alive. The endgame would be the formation of a broader conservative alliance, allowing Joyce to emerge as a consensus opposition leader, cuckolding Ley, Littleproud and Hanson herself, and ultimately allowing him to run for prime minister without One Nation siphoning conservative votes away from him.
Fuel has been added to the speculation after News Limited papers ran a full page story about Joyce as PM, and One Nation leader Pauline Hanson proposed the idea of forming a coalition with the Liberal and National parties ahead of the 2028 federal election this week.
Ms Hanson told Sky News a three-way coalition was “the only way to move forward” given Labor’s large majority in the House of Representatives.
Mr Littleproud has described the prospect of a One Nation-Liberal-National alliance as “purely hypothetical”, stressing that any discussion was “some two years into the distance”.
“Everyone just needs to take a cold shower, focus on working out who they are and what they are,” he told Sky News on Thursday.
Ms Hanson said she would be prepared to provide supply to a conservative government but was scathing of the Coalition’s current state.
“I’m not going to be in government, and either is by the looks of it, either is the Coalition or the National Party,” she said.
“So the fact is that I am a conservative at heart, and I would work with them to give them supply,” she said.
Recent modelling from relatively new pollster DemosAU suggested One Nation could win between 29 and 36 seats at the next election, compared to 9 to 18 for the Liberal Party and 1 to 5 for the Nationals. Multiple news outlets have breathlessly repeated the numbers without any explanation that this seat modelling is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Australian electoral system works, while social media posts have circulated advising One Nation supporters how to sign up to various polls to inflate indications of support.
Speaking to the ABC, Joyce downplayed suggestions that rising support for One Nation was solely due to him, while conceding he had made backing the party more socially acceptable.
“No, but I’m definitely part of it,” he said. “I’m not going to go with sort of faux modesty. I think it’s I’m part of it, and that it gives people license, that they have the capacity to go to dinner and say, well, actually, I’m a one nation voter,” he said.
Joyce also criticised the ongoing division within the Coalition.
“There seems to be a real sort of malaise, confusion, division within the coalition. And no longer the coalition, the Liberal Party and the National Party. I think it’s unbecoming of the chamber. It looks a mess, and that is a shame for our democracy.”
Despite strong anger in the New England, Joyce has continued to claim widespread local support, telling Michelle Grattan that you could not go 150 metres down the street without finding a supporter. He has also walked back previous statements that he would only contest the Senate for One Nation, and is now not ruling out running for New England.
“The plan is to stand for the Senate for New South Wales, but I don’t want to rule things out, because if that circumstance changed you’d be a liar,” Joyce said.
Joyce had previously claimed he would not contest the next election at all, before joining One Nation and announcing he would contest the Senate. Holding a House of Representatives seat would be essential to complete the elaborate plan of delivering him to the Lodge.
Local speculation is that there may be further developments about his intentions when Joyce will be joined by One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts at a party dinner in Tamworth on February 14.
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