The latest New England Times Engage Poll has found that Barnaby Joyce has chosen the right time to move on, with New Englanders grateful for his service, but not wanting him to change his mind and contest the next election. Nor join One Nation.
Almost half of respondents rated Mr Joyce as having been a good local member, with 35 per cent saying he had been “very good” and 14 per cent “good”. And, in classic New England style, voters were respectful of his choice to move on from politics, with most commenting that he needed to make the right decision for him.
- “He is old enough to make his own mind.”
65-69 man, Guyra - “He needs to do what suits him.”
45-49 year old man, Inverell - “Let Barnaby make the best choice for his family.”
60-64 year old woman, Glen Innes
Among those who voted National in the last election earlier this year, 84 per cent said he had been a good or very good member, and even among those leaning away from the Nationals, many said they respected his record.
The poll, which sampled 673 New England voters, was conducted shortly after the news broke that Joyce was not intending to stand again. This announcement was largely forced by rumours he was planning to join One Nation. The party switch is still something Pauline Hanson is pursuing, saying she intends to “woo” him over a steak dinner when parliament resumes next week. However, despite all the intense chatter, close to 4 out of 5 New England voters polled did not want him to switch to One Nation.
While 23 per cent of respondents said they could imagine him switching to One Nation, most comments about the idea were dismissive or derisive. A large portion of those surveyed simply said it was “not a good fit”, with many writing comments such as “that would be ridiculous” or “please no”.
Only 10 per cent said they would like to see him run for the Senate, and many added that they wanted him to leave the field rather than push for a new chapter in politics. Almost 60% said they do not want Joyce to change his mind and run again.
The apparent conflict of an electorate who believes Joyce was an effective local member and has done a good job, and not wanting him to run again, is resolved in the clear and consistent messages that he used to be good, but now it was time for him to move on.
- “Was good previously. But now can’t wait to see him gone.”
60-64 year old man, Uralla - “Earlier days he was the best rural representative we have ever had, towards the end of his time less so.”
50-54 year old man, Walcha - “He has been there too long and takes everything, and the electorate, for granted. He seems worn out.”
70-74 year old woman, Glen Innes
The turning point when he lost the support of his constituency was also clear: when he became fixated on Net Zero.
- “At present he just bangs on about net zero and that is it. He was elected to represent the whole electorate not his hobby horse. Glad when he goes.”
60-64 year old man, Inverell - “Barnaby has good intentions but he needs to be open to change, accept credible studies and move on from the 1980’s.”
45-49 year old woman, Inverell - “Happy to see him go as he’s not my cup of tea, but he’s been an effective representative. Shame about the unhinged net zero obsession really.”
45-49 year old woman, Armidale
As for who may replace Joyce, a significant proportion of voters will be looking for a strong independent, with “someone like Windsor”, referencing former member for New England, being a common phrase. Honesty and integrity were the most desired qualities in a potential candidate, with former state Member for Northern Tablelands, Adam Marshall, the most named ideal candidate.
Even better, according to some, would be Adam Marshall as an independent.
- “Depends who stands, would love to see a community independent or hope Adam Marshall would stand as an independent given he supports renewables and actually works for his electorate unlike Joyce.”
70-74 year old woman, Glen Innes - “If Adam Marshall stood as an Independent I would probably vote for him.”
45-49 year old man, Uralla - “I think if Adam Marshall stood as an Independent, I would vote for him. But not if he was allied with the dinosaur party.”
75-79 year old woman, Armidale
It is not surprising that desire for a strong independent remains high in New England. Around 70 per cent of those surveyed said they have voted for an independent at some election in the past, and two-thirds said they would do so again if they believed that person was genuinely the best candidate.
A female candidate was also high on the wish list for some, with Heidi Hallam (Joyce staffer and new chair of the Tamworth branch of the National Party who contested last year’s Tamworth Regional Council election as Heidi Williamson) getting a respectable number of mentions by name as a potential candidate in the mix.
There is, however, a long way to the next election, and the electorate is not keen on a by-election, with over half of the respondents opting for Joyce to see out his full term.
See all the results on New England Times Engage
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