Jamie Chaffey will succeed Mark Coulton in Parkes and Barnaby Joyce has been easily returned in New England in an election night marked by surprises and significant geographic differences across the country.
Late counting flipped the trend in New England, with Muswellbrook delivering a huge swing to Barnaby Joyce that put him back in positive territory, gaining roughly 2% of the two party preferred vote when counting concluded last night. Both Labor’s Laura Hughes and Joyce gained in primary votes with one less candidate on the ballot than 2022.
However, booth data reveals massive variations across the electorate. 11 booths recorded a swing of more than 5% against Joyce, with Gravesend in the Gwydir Shire, and Wingen and Cassilis in the Upper Hunter Shire, delivering a swing over 10% against Joyce. At the other end of the spectrum, 19 booths delivered a gain of more than 5% – including notably the Muswellbrook Pre-poll centre with a 9.75% swing to the Nationals, and six booths into double digits, including a whopping 23.1% gain at North Star.
Booth Candidate Swing Cassilis Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -15.81 Wingen Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -12.26 Gravesend Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -10.74 Nowendoc Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -9.47 Merriwa Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -8.71 Quirindi PPVC Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -7.95 Wallabadah Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -7.57 Blackville Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -7.1 Legume Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -6.99 Warialda Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -5.96 Attunga Barnaby Joyce, Nationals -5.18 Inverell East Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 5.01 Hillvue Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 5.02 Urbenville Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 6.11 Kentucky Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 6.19 Drake Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 6.26 Bendemeer Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 6.62 Madgwick Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 6.68 Dungowan Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 7.12 Ebor Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 7.8 Bundarra Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 8.09 Gilgai Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 8.44 Muswellbrook PPVC Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 9.75 Ashford Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 9.88 Willow Tree Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 10.11 Caroona Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 11.41 Sandy Hollow Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 13.05 Loomberah Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 16.46 Yarrowitch Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 18.64 North Star Barnaby Joyce, Nationals 23.1
The pre-poll centres tell the story of the geographic disparity, with a massive swing to Joyce in Muswellbrook, mostly from Labor, but an equally massive swing against him in Quirindi that went to One Nation’s Brent Larkham who somehow secured a massive 22.54% of the pre-poll vote there. Larkham also did well in his hometown of Tamworth.
| Pre-poll Booth | JOYCE | HUGHES | LARKHAM | WALES | LEDGER | MASTERS | JUCHAU | Informal |
| Armidale PPVC | 1.63 | 2.97 | 2.45 | -2.89 | 0.31 | 3.29 | 1.62 | -0.75 |
| Glen Innes PPVC | 2.05 | 2.06 | 3.9 | -2.8 | 0.75 | 1.78 | 2.51 | -3.28 |
| Inverell PPVC | 3.2 | 0.96 | 4.09 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 2.16 | 2.69 | -0.49 |
| Muswellbrook PPVC | 9.75 | -11.77 | 5.35 | 1.38 | 3.47 | 3.02 | 4.38 | -0.69 |
| Quirindi PPVC | -7.95 | -3.11 | 22.54 | -1.28 | -0.13 | 1.27 | 3.28 | -4.29 |
| Tamworth South PPVC | 1.52 | 0.03 | 7.43 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 2.05 | 1.86 | -2.93 |
| Tenterfield PPVC | 0.34 | 2.54 | 2.13 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 2.52 | 2 | -1.19 |
| Average of Swing | 1.51 | -0.90 | 6.84 | -0.59 | 0.86 | 2.30 | 2.62 | -1.95 |
Parkes continue to be hard to read, and while Jamie Chaffey has been called as the winner and is unlikely to lose from his 40% primary vote position, that there is also 40% of the vote to be distributed in preferences means there is still a lot of counting to do.
A number of booths in Parkes are still not yet reporting any results, including Gulurgambone, Mungindi, Wyalong, and all of the remote and mobile voting. Additionally, a number of the bigger booths have not reported the two candidate preferred vote, which may indicate that the AEC stopped counting – which they do when it is not clear who the final two candidates on the ballot will be. The evidence of the highly disaffected electorate is clear with an informal vote above 10%, and One Nation – who had the donkey vote position at the top of the ticket securing 13.7% of the vote when counting stopped. One Nation and Shooters candidates combined have a higher primary than Labor, which means the result will not be entirely clear until the full distribution of preferences is conducted.
Sally Edwards will be disappointed with her 3.66% of the vote despite being one of the strongest campaigners in the race. The Libertarians did badly everywhere, their name confusion with the Liberals – and name change from Liberal Democrats – being blamed last night for the unexpected drop in support, as people avoided voting Liberal.
The Liberals will need to do some soul searching after losing 12 seats yesterday, including Liberal Leader Peter Dutton in Dickson, and front benchers Michael Sukkar in Deakin and David Coleman in Banks. One of the more disappointing losses is the thoughtful and independently minded Bridget Archer, who crossed the floor on a number of key issues, and who admitted her closeness to Peter Dutton likely cost her the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass.
However, all of the swing against the Coalition was against Liberal and Liberal National Party seats, while the Nationals held – and in some places increased their margin.
Eight National Party seats clearly voted Nationals again, while Cowper and Calare remain too close to call and the result will likely not be known for a few days. In addition to Joyce and Chaffey, Michael McCormack held Riverina with a 3% swing to him, Kevin Hogan held Page, Alison Penfold held Lyne, Anne Webster held Mallee, Sam Birrell held Nicholls, and Darren Chester held Gippsland. Nationals Leader David Littleproud also easily retained his seat of Mallee for the LNP.
Follow all the New England Times coverage of the federal election here or have your say on Engage
See more about the race in New England here
See more about the race in Parkes here